1 00:00:13,680 --> 00:00:16,416 Many people face the news each morning 2 00:00:16,440 --> 00:00:18,896 with trepidation and dread. 3 00:00:18,920 --> 00:00:21,576 Every day, we read of shootings, 4 00:00:21,600 --> 00:00:25,496 inequality, pollution, dictatorship, 5 00:00:25,520 --> 00:00:28,696 war and the spread of nuclear weapons. 6 00:00:28,720 --> 00:00:30,456 These are some of the reasons 7 00:00:30,480 --> 00:00:35,936 that 2016 was called the "Worst. Year. Ever." 8 00:00:35,960 --> 00:00:38,536 Until 2017 claimed that record -- 9 00:00:38,560 --> 00:00:39,616 (Laughter) 10 00:00:39,640 --> 00:00:42,216 and left many people longing for earlier decades, 11 00:00:42,240 --> 00:00:45,560 when the world seemed safer, cleaner and more equal. 12 00:00:46,560 --> 00:00:50,136 But is this a sensible way to understand the human condition 13 00:00:50,160 --> 00:00:52,136 in the 21st century? 14 00:00:52,160 --> 00:00:54,936 As Franklin Pierce Adams pointed out, 15 00:00:54,960 --> 00:00:57,656 "Nothing is more responsible for the good old days 16 00:00:57,680 --> 00:00:58,896 than a bad memory." 17 00:00:58,920 --> 00:01:01,656 (Laughter) 18 00:01:01,680 --> 00:01:05,056 You can always fool yourself into seeing a decline 19 00:01:05,080 --> 00:01:07,776 if you compare bleeding headlines of the present 20 00:01:07,800 --> 00:01:10,896 with rose-tinted images of the past. 21 00:01:10,920 --> 00:01:13,336 What does the trajectory of the world look like 22 00:01:13,360 --> 00:01:17,616 when we measure well-being over time using a constant yardstick? 23 00:01:17,640 --> 00:01:20,336 Let's compare the most recent data on the present 24 00:01:20,360 --> 00:01:22,360 with the same measures 30 years ago. 25 00:01:23,320 --> 00:01:28,456 Last year, Americans killed each other at a rate of 5.3 per hundred thousand, 26 00:01:28,480 --> 00:01:31,856 had seven percent of their citizens in poverty 27 00:01:31,880 --> 00:01:35,136 and emitted 21 million tons of particulate matter 28 00:01:35,160 --> 00:01:38,256 and four million tons of sulfur dioxide. 29 00:01:38,280 --> 00:01:42,416 But 30 years ago, the homicide rate was 8.5 per hundred thousand, 30 00:01:42,440 --> 00:01:44,536 poverty rate was 12 percent 31 00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:47,736 and we emitted 35 million tons of particulate matter 32 00:01:47,760 --> 00:01:50,480 and 20 million tons of sulfur dioxide. 33 00:01:51,400 --> 00:01:53,456 What about the world as a whole? 34 00:01:53,480 --> 00:01:56,896 Last year, the world had 12 ongoing wars, 35 00:01:56,920 --> 00:01:59,056 60 autocracies, 36 00:01:59,080 --> 00:02:02,696 10 percent of the world population in extreme poverty 37 00:02:02,720 --> 00:02:05,696 and more than 10,000 nuclear weapons. 38 00:02:05,720 --> 00:02:08,216 But 30 years ago, there were 23 wars, 39 00:02:08,240 --> 00:02:10,136 85 autocracies, 40 00:02:10,160 --> 00:02:13,776 37 percent of the world population in extreme poverty 41 00:02:13,800 --> 00:02:16,600 and more than 60,000 nuclear weapons. 42 00:02:17,200 --> 00:02:21,735 True, last year was a terrible year for terrorism in Western Europe, 43 00:02:21,759 --> 00:02:23,976 with 238 deaths, 44 00:02:24,000 --> 00:02:27,200 but 1988 was worse with 440 deaths. 45 00:02:28,440 --> 00:02:29,976 What's going on? 46 00:02:30,000 --> 00:02:33,496 Was 1988 a particularly bad year? 47 00:02:33,520 --> 00:02:37,576 Or are these improvements a sign that the world, for all its struggles, 48 00:02:37,600 --> 00:02:39,240 gets better over time? 49 00:02:39,800 --> 00:02:44,600 Might we even invoke the admittedly old-fashioned notion of progress? 50 00:02:45,880 --> 00:02:49,176 To do so is to court a certain amount of derision, 51 00:02:49,200 --> 00:02:52,976 because I have found that intellectuals hate progress. 52 00:02:53,000 --> 00:02:54,816 (Laughter) 53 00:02:54,840 --> 00:02:57,656 (Applause) 54 00:02:57,680 --> 00:03:01,376 And intellectuals who call themselves progressive really hate progress. 55 00:03:01,400 --> 00:03:02,536 (Laughter) 56 00:03:02,560 --> 00:03:05,896 Now, it's not that they hate the fruits of progress, mind you. 57 00:03:05,920 --> 00:03:08,536 Most academics and pundits 58 00:03:08,560 --> 00:03:12,000 would rather have their surgery with anesthesia than without it. 59 00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:17,336 It's the idea of progress that rankles the chattering class. 60 00:03:17,360 --> 00:03:21,096 If you believe that humans can improve their lot, I have been told, 61 00:03:21,120 --> 00:03:23,496 that means that you have a blind faith 62 00:03:23,520 --> 00:03:28,096 and a quasi-religious belief in the outmoded superstition 63 00:03:28,120 --> 00:03:31,936 and the false promise of the myth of the onward march 64 00:03:31,960 --> 00:03:34,000 of inexorable progress. 65 00:03:34,640 --> 00:03:38,976 You are a cheerleader for vulgar American can-doism, 66 00:03:39,000 --> 00:03:42,216 with the rah-rah spirit of boardroom ideology, 67 00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:45,296 Silicon Valley and the Chamber of Commerce. 68 00:03:45,320 --> 00:03:48,176 You are a practitioner of Whig history, 69 00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:52,336 a naive optimist, a Pollyanna and, of course, a Pangloss, 70 00:03:52,360 --> 00:03:55,016 alluding to the Voltaire character who declared, 71 00:03:55,040 --> 00:03:58,376 "All is for the best in the best of all possible worlds." 72 00:03:58,400 --> 00:04:01,896 Well, Professor Pangloss, as it happens, was a pessimist. 73 00:04:01,920 --> 00:04:04,576 A true optimist believes there can be much better worlds 74 00:04:04,600 --> 00:04:06,136 than the one we have today. 75 00:04:06,160 --> 00:04:07,816 But all of this is irrelevant, 76 00:04:07,840 --> 00:04:10,616 because the question of whether progress has taken place 77 00:04:10,640 --> 00:04:12,376 is not a matter of faith 78 00:04:12,400 --> 00:04:16,216 or having an optimistic temperament or seeing the glass as half full. 79 00:04:16,240 --> 00:04:18,080 It's a testable hypothesis. 80 00:04:18,720 --> 00:04:20,096 For all their differences, 81 00:04:20,120 --> 00:04:24,496 people largely agree on what goes into human well-being: 82 00:04:24,520 --> 00:04:30,216 life, health, sustenance, prosperity, peace, freedom, safety, knowledge, 83 00:04:30,240 --> 00:04:32,216 leisure, happiness. 84 00:04:32,240 --> 00:04:34,136 All of these things can be measured. 85 00:04:34,160 --> 00:04:38,496 If they have improved over time, that, I submit, is progress. 86 00:04:38,520 --> 00:04:40,136 Let's go to the data, 87 00:04:40,160 --> 00:04:43,776 beginning with the most precious thing of all, life. 88 00:04:43,800 --> 00:04:48,376 For most of human history, life expectancy at birth was around 30. 89 00:04:48,400 --> 00:04:51,176 Today, worldwide, it is more than 70, 90 00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:53,136 and in the developed parts of the world, 91 00:04:53,160 --> 00:04:54,360 more than 80. 92 00:04:55,040 --> 00:04:58,176 250 years ago, in the richest countries of the world, 93 00:04:58,200 --> 00:05:02,216 a third of the children did not live to see their fifth birthday, 94 00:05:02,240 --> 00:05:05,576 before the risk was brought down a hundredfold. 95 00:05:05,600 --> 00:05:08,856 Today, that fate befalls less than six percent of children 96 00:05:08,880 --> 00:05:10,720 in the poorest countries of the world. 97 00:05:11,600 --> 00:05:15,016 Famine is one of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse. 98 00:05:15,040 --> 00:05:18,296 It could bring devastation to any part of the world. 99 00:05:18,320 --> 00:05:20,256 Today, famine has been banished 100 00:05:20,280 --> 00:05:22,880 to the most remote and war-ravaged regions. 101 00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:26,816 200 years ago, 90 percent of the world's population 102 00:05:26,840 --> 00:05:29,016 subsisted in extreme poverty. 103 00:05:29,040 --> 00:05:31,600 Today, fewer than 10 percent of people do. 104 00:05:32,720 --> 00:05:34,216 For most of human history, 105 00:05:34,240 --> 00:05:36,296 the powerful states and empires 106 00:05:36,320 --> 00:05:38,936 were pretty much always at war with each other, 107 00:05:38,960 --> 00:05:42,416 and peace was a mere interlude between wars. 108 00:05:42,440 --> 00:05:44,696 Today, they are never at war with each other. 109 00:05:44,720 --> 00:05:46,016 The last great power war 110 00:05:46,040 --> 00:05:49,160 pitted the United States against China 65 years ago. 111 00:05:50,160 --> 00:05:54,896 More recently, wars of all kinds have become fewer and less deadly. 112 00:05:54,920 --> 00:05:59,376 The annual rate of war has fallen from about 22 per hundred thousand per year 113 00:05:59,400 --> 00:06:03,016 in the early '50s to 1.2 today. 114 00:06:03,040 --> 00:06:05,616 Democracy has suffered obvious setbacks 115 00:06:05,640 --> 00:06:09,256 in Venezuela, in Russia, in Turkey 116 00:06:09,280 --> 00:06:12,376 and is threatened by the rise of authoritarian populism 117 00:06:12,400 --> 00:06:15,016 in Eastern Europe and the United States. 118 00:06:15,040 --> 00:06:17,736 Yet the world has never been more democratic 119 00:06:17,760 --> 00:06:19,736 than it has been in the past decade, 120 00:06:19,760 --> 00:06:22,960 with two-thirds of the world's people living in democracies. 121 00:06:24,280 --> 00:06:28,416 Homicide rates plunge whenever anarchy and the code of vendetta 122 00:06:28,440 --> 00:06:30,816 are replaced by the rule of law. 123 00:06:30,840 --> 00:06:35,056 It happened when feudal Europe was brought under the control of centralized kingdoms, 124 00:06:35,080 --> 00:06:37,216 so that today a Western European 125 00:06:37,240 --> 00:06:39,816 has 1/35th the chance of being murdered 126 00:06:39,840 --> 00:06:42,416 compared to his medieval ancestors. 127 00:06:42,440 --> 00:06:44,896 It happened again in colonial New England, 128 00:06:44,920 --> 00:06:48,456 in the American Wild West when the sheriffs moved to town, 129 00:06:48,480 --> 00:06:50,176 and in Mexico. 130 00:06:50,200 --> 00:06:53,720 Indeed, we've become safer in just about every way. 131 00:06:54,560 --> 00:06:58,096 Over the last century, we've become 96 percent less likely 132 00:06:58,120 --> 00:07:00,376 to be killed in a car crash, 133 00:07:00,400 --> 00:07:04,336 88 percent less likely to be mowed down on the sidewalk, 134 00:07:04,360 --> 00:07:08,096 99 percent less likely to die in a plane crash, 135 00:07:08,120 --> 00:07:11,776 95 percent less likely to be killed on the job, 136 00:07:11,800 --> 00:07:15,416 89 percent less likely to be killed by an act of God, 137 00:07:15,440 --> 00:07:19,376 such as a drought, flood, wildfire, storm, volcano, 138 00:07:19,400 --> 00:07:22,056 landslide, earthquake or meteor strike, 139 00:07:22,080 --> 00:07:25,336 presumably not because God has become less angry with us 140 00:07:25,360 --> 00:07:30,096 but because of improvements in the resilience of our infrastructure. 141 00:07:30,120 --> 00:07:33,376 And what about the quintessential act of God, 142 00:07:33,400 --> 00:07:36,896 the projectile hurled by Zeus himself? 143 00:07:36,920 --> 00:07:41,160 Yes, we are 97 percent less likely to be killed by a bolt of lightning. 144 00:07:43,480 --> 00:07:45,136 Before the 17th century, 145 00:07:45,160 --> 00:07:48,696 no more than 15 percent of Europeans could read or write. 146 00:07:48,720 --> 00:07:51,856 Europe and the United States achieved universal literacy 147 00:07:51,880 --> 00:07:53,816 by the middle of the 20th century, 148 00:07:53,840 --> 00:07:56,336 and the rest of the world is catching up. 149 00:07:56,360 --> 00:07:59,776 Today, more than 90 percent of the world's population 150 00:07:59,800 --> 00:08:02,240 under the age of 25 can read and write. 151 00:08:03,440 --> 00:08:07,416 In the 19th century, Westerners worked more than 60 hours per week. 152 00:08:07,440 --> 00:08:09,360 Today, they work fewer than 40. 153 00:08:10,440 --> 00:08:14,856 Thanks to the universal penetration of running water and electricity 154 00:08:14,880 --> 00:08:16,256 in the developed world 155 00:08:16,280 --> 00:08:20,256 and the widespread adoption of washing machines, vacuum cleaners, 156 00:08:20,280 --> 00:08:24,256 refrigerators, dishwashers, stoves and microwaves, 157 00:08:24,280 --> 00:08:27,176 the amount of our lives that we forfeit to housework 158 00:08:27,200 --> 00:08:29,576 has fallen from 60 hours a week 159 00:08:29,600 --> 00:08:31,560 to fewer than 15 hours a week. 160 00:08:32,760 --> 00:08:37,296 Do all of these gains in health, wealth, safety, knowledge and leisure 161 00:08:37,320 --> 00:08:39,016 make us any happier? 162 00:08:39,039 --> 00:08:40,255 The answer is yes. 163 00:08:40,280 --> 00:08:42,456 In 86 percent of the world's countries, 164 00:08:42,480 --> 00:08:44,840 happiness has increased in recent decades. 165 00:08:45,799 --> 00:08:47,535 Well, I hope to have convinced you 166 00:08:47,559 --> 00:08:50,976 that progress is not a matter of faith or optimism, 167 00:08:51,000 --> 00:08:53,135 but is a fact of human history, 168 00:08:53,159 --> 00:08:55,720 indeed the greatest fact in human history. 169 00:08:56,480 --> 00:08:59,296 And how has this fact been covered in the news? 170 00:08:59,320 --> 00:09:02,480 (Laughter) 171 00:09:03,360 --> 00:09:07,336 A tabulation of positive and negative emotion words in news stories 172 00:09:07,360 --> 00:09:11,016 has shown that during the decades in which humanity has gotten healthier, 173 00:09:11,040 --> 00:09:13,856 wealthier, wiser, safer and happier, 174 00:09:13,880 --> 00:09:17,976 the "New York Times" has become increasingly morose 175 00:09:18,000 --> 00:09:21,600 and the world's broadcasts too have gotten steadily glummer. 176 00:09:22,720 --> 00:09:25,416 Why don't people appreciate progress? 177 00:09:25,440 --> 00:09:28,416 Part of the answer comes from our cognitive psychology. 178 00:09:28,440 --> 00:09:33,456 We estimate risk using a mental shortcut called the "availability heuristic." 179 00:09:33,480 --> 00:09:36,256 The easier it is to recall something from memory, 180 00:09:36,280 --> 00:09:38,280 the more probable we judge it to be. 181 00:09:39,200 --> 00:09:42,816 The other part of the answer comes from the nature of journalism, 182 00:09:42,840 --> 00:09:46,216 captured in this satirical headline from "The Onion," 183 00:09:46,240 --> 00:09:48,296 "CNN Holds Morning Meeting to Decide 184 00:09:48,320 --> 00:09:50,616 What Viewers Should Panic About For Rest of Day." 185 00:09:50,640 --> 00:09:52,336 (Laughter) 186 00:09:52,360 --> 00:09:56,400 (Applause) 187 00:09:57,160 --> 00:10:00,976 News is about stuff that happens, not stuff that doesn't happen. 188 00:10:01,000 --> 00:10:03,376 You never see a journalist who says, 189 00:10:03,400 --> 00:10:07,616 "I'm reporting live from a country that has been at peace for 40 years," 190 00:10:07,640 --> 00:10:10,280 or a city that has not been attacked by terrorists. 191 00:10:10,960 --> 00:10:13,296 Also, bad things can happen quickly, 192 00:10:13,320 --> 00:10:15,736 but good things aren't built in a day. 193 00:10:15,760 --> 00:10:17,656 The papers could have run the headline, 194 00:10:17,680 --> 00:10:22,056 "137,000 people escaped from extreme poverty yesterday" 195 00:10:22,080 --> 00:10:24,936 every day for the last 25 years. 196 00:10:24,960 --> 00:10:29,176 That's one and a quarter billion people leaving poverty behind, 197 00:10:29,200 --> 00:10:31,216 but you never read about it. 198 00:10:31,240 --> 00:10:34,536 Also, the news capitalizes on our morbid interest 199 00:10:34,560 --> 00:10:35,816 in what can go wrong, 200 00:10:35,840 --> 00:10:40,176 captured in the programming policy, "If it bleeds, it leads." 201 00:10:40,200 --> 00:10:43,936 Well, if you combine our cognitive biases with the nature of news, 202 00:10:43,960 --> 00:10:46,656 you can see why the world has been coming to an end 203 00:10:46,680 --> 00:10:48,640 for a very long time indeed. 204 00:10:50,840 --> 00:10:52,936 Let me address some questions about progress 205 00:10:52,960 --> 00:10:55,320 that no doubt have occurred to many of you. 206 00:10:56,320 --> 00:10:59,056 First, isn't it good to be pessimistic 207 00:10:59,080 --> 00:11:01,496 to safeguard against complacency, 208 00:11:01,520 --> 00:11:04,176 to rake the muck, to speak truth to power? 209 00:11:04,200 --> 00:11:06,176 Well, not exactly. 210 00:11:06,200 --> 00:11:08,176 It's good to be accurate. 211 00:11:08,200 --> 00:11:10,656 Of course we should be aware of suffering and danger 212 00:11:10,680 --> 00:11:12,096 wherever they occur, 213 00:11:12,120 --> 00:11:15,136 but we should also be aware of how they can be reduced, 214 00:11:15,160 --> 00:11:18,656 because there are dangers to indiscriminate pessimism. 215 00:11:18,680 --> 00:11:20,336 One of them is fatalism. 216 00:11:20,360 --> 00:11:22,536 If all our efforts at improving the world 217 00:11:22,560 --> 00:11:23,856 have been in vain, 218 00:11:23,880 --> 00:11:25,736 why throw good money after bad? 219 00:11:25,760 --> 00:11:27,332 The poor will always be with you. 220 00:11:28,280 --> 00:11:30,576 And since the world will end soon -- 221 00:11:30,600 --> 00:11:32,456 if climate change doesn't kill us all, 222 00:11:32,480 --> 00:11:34,936 then runaway artificial intelligence will -- 223 00:11:34,960 --> 00:11:38,576 a natural response is to enjoy life while we can, 224 00:11:38,600 --> 00:11:41,360 eat, drink and be merry, for tomorrow we die. 225 00:11:42,840 --> 00:11:46,136 The other danger of thoughtless pessimism is radicalism. 226 00:11:46,160 --> 00:11:50,176 If our institutions are all failing and beyond hope for reform, 227 00:11:50,200 --> 00:11:53,856 a natural response is to seek to smash the machine, 228 00:11:53,880 --> 00:11:55,096 drain the swamp, 229 00:11:55,120 --> 00:11:56,896 burn the empire to the ground, 230 00:11:56,920 --> 00:12:00,216 on the hope that whatever rises out of the ashes 231 00:12:00,240 --> 00:12:02,480 is bound to be better than what we have now. 232 00:12:03,920 --> 00:12:05,976 Well, if there is such a thing as progress, 233 00:12:06,000 --> 00:12:07,256 what causes it? 234 00:12:07,280 --> 00:12:12,456 Progress is not some mystical force or dialectic lifting us ever higher. 235 00:12:12,480 --> 00:12:16,056 It's not a mysterious arc of history bending toward justice. 236 00:12:16,080 --> 00:12:19,816 It's the result of human efforts governed by an idea, 237 00:12:19,840 --> 00:12:23,856 an idea that we associate with the 18th century Enlightenment, 238 00:12:23,880 --> 00:12:28,216 namely that if we apply reason and science 239 00:12:28,240 --> 00:12:30,296 that enhance human well-being, 240 00:12:30,320 --> 00:12:31,960 we can gradually succeed. 241 00:12:32,680 --> 00:12:36,136 Is progress inevitable? Of course not. 242 00:12:36,160 --> 00:12:39,176 Progress does not mean that everything becomes better 243 00:12:39,200 --> 00:12:42,136 for everyone everywhere all the time. 244 00:12:42,160 --> 00:12:45,416 That would be a miracle, and progress is not a miracle 245 00:12:45,440 --> 00:12:46,640 but problem-solving. 246 00:12:47,360 --> 00:12:49,216 Problems are inevitable 247 00:12:49,240 --> 00:12:52,920 and solutions create new problems which have to be solved in their turn. 248 00:12:53,760 --> 00:12:57,456 The unsolved problems facing the world today are gargantuan, 249 00:12:57,480 --> 00:13:00,256 including the risks of climate change 250 00:13:00,280 --> 00:13:01,896 and nuclear war, 251 00:13:01,920 --> 00:13:04,456 but we must see them as problems to be solved, 252 00:13:04,480 --> 00:13:06,896 not apocalypses in waiting, 253 00:13:06,920 --> 00:13:09,176 and aggressively pursue solutions 254 00:13:09,200 --> 00:13:12,056 like Deep Decarbonization for climate change 255 00:13:12,080 --> 00:13:14,280 and Global Zero for nuclear war. 256 00:13:15,760 --> 00:13:19,656 Finally, does the Enlightenment go against human nature? 257 00:13:19,680 --> 00:13:21,976 This is an acute question for me, 258 00:13:22,000 --> 00:13:25,416 because I'm a prominent advocate of the existence of human nature, 259 00:13:25,440 --> 00:13:28,856 with all its shortcomings and perversities. 260 00:13:28,880 --> 00:13:30,296 In my book "The Blank Slate," 261 00:13:30,320 --> 00:13:34,456 I argued that the human prospect is more tragic than utopian 262 00:13:34,480 --> 00:13:37,216 and that we are not stardust, we are not golden 263 00:13:37,240 --> 00:13:39,776 and there's no way we are getting back to the garden. 264 00:13:39,800 --> 00:13:42,296 (Laughter) 265 00:13:42,320 --> 00:13:44,616 But my worldview has lightened up 266 00:13:44,640 --> 00:13:47,576 in the 15 years since "The Blank Slate" was published. 267 00:13:47,600 --> 00:13:50,536 My acquaintance with the statistics of human progress, 268 00:13:50,560 --> 00:13:51,896 starting with violence 269 00:13:51,920 --> 00:13:55,696 but now encompassing every other aspect of our well-being, 270 00:13:55,720 --> 00:13:57,296 has fortified my belief 271 00:13:57,320 --> 00:14:00,496 that in understanding our tribulations and woes, 272 00:14:00,520 --> 00:14:02,296 human nature is the problem, 273 00:14:02,320 --> 00:14:06,656 but human nature, channeled by Enlightenment norms and institutions, 274 00:14:06,680 --> 00:14:07,880 is also the solution. 275 00:14:09,200 --> 00:14:14,096 Admittedly, it's not easy to replicate my own data-driven epiphany 276 00:14:14,120 --> 00:14:16,456 with humanity at large. 277 00:14:16,480 --> 00:14:18,296 Some intellectuals have responded 278 00:14:18,320 --> 00:14:21,016 with fury to my book "Enlightenment Now," 279 00:14:21,040 --> 00:14:25,296 saying first how dare he claim that intellectuals hate progress, 280 00:14:25,320 --> 00:14:28,456 and second, how dare he claim that there has been progress. 281 00:14:28,480 --> 00:14:31,160 (Laughter) 282 00:14:32,240 --> 00:14:35,856 With others, the idea of progress just leaves them cold. 283 00:14:35,880 --> 00:14:37,576 Saving the lives of billions, 284 00:14:37,600 --> 00:14:40,496 eradicating disease, feeding the hungry, 285 00:14:40,520 --> 00:14:41,960 teaching kids to read? 286 00:14:42,560 --> 00:14:43,760 Boring. 287 00:14:44,720 --> 00:14:49,216 At the same time, the most common response I have received from readers is gratitude, 288 00:14:49,240 --> 00:14:51,616 gratitude for changing their view of the world 289 00:14:51,640 --> 00:14:54,176 from a numb and helpless fatalism 290 00:14:54,200 --> 00:14:55,856 to something more constructive, 291 00:14:55,880 --> 00:14:57,616 even heroic. 292 00:14:57,640 --> 00:14:59,816 I believe that the ideals of the Enlightenment 293 00:14:59,840 --> 00:15:01,856 can be cast a stirring narrative, 294 00:15:01,880 --> 00:15:04,696 and I hope that people with greater artistic flare 295 00:15:04,720 --> 00:15:06,736 and rhetorical power than I 296 00:15:06,760 --> 00:15:09,776 can tell it better and spread it further. 297 00:15:09,800 --> 00:15:11,240 It goes something like this. 298 00:15:12,320 --> 00:15:14,896 We are born into a pitiless universe, 299 00:15:14,920 --> 00:15:18,096 facing steep odds against life-enabling order 300 00:15:18,120 --> 00:15:20,520 and in constant jeopardy of falling apart. 301 00:15:21,360 --> 00:15:24,760 We were shaped by a process that is ruthlessly competitive. 302 00:15:25,720 --> 00:15:27,496 We are made from crooked timber, 303 00:15:27,520 --> 00:15:30,536 vulnerable to illusions, self-centeredness 304 00:15:30,560 --> 00:15:32,800 and at times astounding stupidity. 305 00:15:33,800 --> 00:15:36,536 Yet human nature has also been blessed with resources 306 00:15:36,560 --> 00:15:38,840 that open a space for a kind of redemption. 307 00:15:39,640 --> 00:15:42,896 We are endowed with the power to combine ideas recursively, 308 00:15:42,920 --> 00:15:45,376 to have thoughts about our thoughts. 309 00:15:45,400 --> 00:15:47,296 We have an instinct for language, 310 00:15:47,320 --> 00:15:50,760 allowing us to share the fruits of our ingenuity and experience. 311 00:15:51,760 --> 00:15:54,416 We are deepened with the capacity for sympathy, 312 00:15:54,440 --> 00:15:58,560 for pity, imagination, compassion, commiseration. 313 00:15:59,480 --> 00:16:03,256 These endowments have found ways to magnify their own power. 314 00:16:03,280 --> 00:16:05,296 The scope of language has been augmented 315 00:16:05,320 --> 00:16:08,160 by the written, printed and electronic word. 316 00:16:09,280 --> 00:16:11,296 Our circle of sympathy has been expanded 317 00:16:11,320 --> 00:16:14,400 by history, journalism and the narrative arts. 318 00:16:15,160 --> 00:16:18,016 And our puny rational faculties have been multiplied 319 00:16:18,040 --> 00:16:20,736 by the norms and institutions of reason, 320 00:16:20,760 --> 00:16:24,056 intellectual curiosity, open debate, 321 00:16:24,080 --> 00:16:26,776 skepticism of authority and dogma 322 00:16:26,800 --> 00:16:29,176 and the burden of proof to verify ideas 323 00:16:29,200 --> 00:16:31,080 by confronting them against reality. 324 00:16:32,320 --> 00:16:34,856 As the spiral of recursive improvement 325 00:16:34,880 --> 00:16:36,496 gathers momentum, 326 00:16:36,520 --> 00:16:40,056 we eke out victories against the forces that grind us down, 327 00:16:40,080 --> 00:16:43,336 not least the darker parts of our own nature. 328 00:16:43,360 --> 00:16:48,096 We penetrate the mysteries of the cosmos, including life and mind. 329 00:16:48,120 --> 00:16:51,976 We live longer, suffer less, learn more, 330 00:16:52,000 --> 00:16:54,856 get smarter and enjoy more small pleasures 331 00:16:54,880 --> 00:16:56,200 and rich experiences. 332 00:16:57,080 --> 00:17:01,696 Fewer of us are killed, assaulted, enslaved, exploited 333 00:17:01,720 --> 00:17:03,736 or oppressed by the others. 334 00:17:03,760 --> 00:17:08,256 From a few oases, the territories with peace and prosperity are growing 335 00:17:08,280 --> 00:17:10,640 and could someday encompass the globe. 336 00:17:11,839 --> 00:17:13,735 Much suffering remains 337 00:17:13,760 --> 00:17:15,496 and tremendous peril, 338 00:17:15,520 --> 00:17:18,256 but ideas on how to reduce them have been voiced, 339 00:17:18,280 --> 00:17:22,175 and an infinite number of others are yet to be conceived. 340 00:17:22,200 --> 00:17:24,616 We will never have a perfect world, 341 00:17:24,640 --> 00:17:26,896 and it would be dangerous to seek one. 342 00:17:26,920 --> 00:17:29,455 But there's no limit to the betterments we can attain 343 00:17:29,480 --> 00:17:33,359 if we continue to apply knowledge to enhance human flourishing. 344 00:17:34,760 --> 00:17:37,896 This heroic story is not just another myth. 345 00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:40,976 Myths are fictions, but this one is true, 346 00:17:41,000 --> 00:17:44,936 true to the best of our knowledge, which is the only truth we can have. 347 00:17:44,960 --> 00:17:46,176 As we learn more, 348 00:17:46,200 --> 00:17:50,656 we can show which parts of the story continue to be true and which ones false, 349 00:17:50,680 --> 00:17:53,480 as any of them might be and any could become. 350 00:17:54,320 --> 00:17:56,856 And this story belongs not to any tribe 351 00:17:56,880 --> 00:17:58,736 but to all of humanity, 352 00:17:58,760 --> 00:18:02,456 to any sentient creature with the power of reason 353 00:18:02,480 --> 00:18:05,376 and the urge to persist in its being, 354 00:18:05,400 --> 00:18:07,336 for it requires only the convictions 355 00:18:07,360 --> 00:18:09,536 that life is better than death, 356 00:18:09,560 --> 00:18:11,496 health is better than sickness, 357 00:18:11,520 --> 00:18:13,656 abundance is better than want, 358 00:18:13,680 --> 00:18:16,096 freedom is better than coercion, 359 00:18:16,120 --> 00:18:18,296 happiness is better than suffering 360 00:18:18,320 --> 00:18:21,720 and knowledge is better than ignorance and superstition. 361 00:18:22,520 --> 00:18:23,736 Thank you. 362 00:18:23,760 --> 00:18:27,560 (Applause)